noise to signal

Haner gives good forecast discussion

From this morning's forecast discussion for Seattle at the NOAA site:

Short term...many of our point-to-point pressure gradients have started weakening since 06z...some quickly. However...the base of the negatively tilted trough remains southwest of the forecast area at this time. Was considering letting go of the high wind watch for at least the northwest olympic peninsula...but have decided to first let the upper trough axis and surface front move by first. Indeed...the wind at buoy 29 has actually been coming up for the past few hours...and the wind at hoquiam flipped back around to an easterly direction this hour...so believe the party`s not over yet. As for the foothills...the ksea-keat pres grad has weakened over the past few hours...and the wind at the snoqualmie river bridge on i-90 has trended down since 1 am...but it again concerns me that the front has not actually moved by yet. Often times...strongest winds come in the pre-frontal regime immediately in advance of the front.

Once the negatively tilted front moves by later this morning...much colder air aloft will move in with 500 mb temps dropping down to near -35c. 700-500 mb lapse rates become quite steep...reaching the 8-8.5 c/km range. Will spread the mention of thunder onto the coast and as far inland as the southwest interior...though a stray strike during afternoon heating just about anywhere would not surprise me through this evening.

(reformatted for legibility... why they continue to show this in all caps on the site is a question I haven't really investigated)